tv Fast Money CNBC March 5, 2010 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
many years of being in this business. sometimes you can think anything, fundamentals, technicals, it doesn't matter. it feels like we're entering another melt-up where portfolio matters go to sleep tonight and all they're fearful about is underperforming the s&p on a relative performance. i think we're about to rise -- about to enter a phase like that. >> gary is talking about technicals. i agree about that. >> i don't think it's technicals. i think it's an emotional thing that you justify the reasons -- >> i think there's a lot of money on the sidelines still. i think there's a lot of money in bond funds. that's going to flip over. but there was fantastic data this week. we got a pretty decent payroll number with a lot of expectations. we had ism numbers, manufacturing part of this payroll number saying you've got growth two months in a row. consum consumer credit came back for the first time in 12 months.
china has started the week telling us their economy wasn't quite as strong but it's very strong. we may the goldilocks and the punch bowl back. if you tried to short europe, you got smoked. >> in the options markets, 15 million options. >> why is there that disparity? >> people are getting a lot more confidence right now. if you look at the sentiment, the volatility index, that says a lot. and the confidence is driving people to start talking about m&a and talking about putting their money where their mouth is. rumored takeout this that and the other. nuance would be a great example. trades 900 contracts a day. today traded 45,000 calls alone. this stock is just screaming to the upside. that's just one of many. it was coming across the desk
all someday long today. that was really the volume driver of the options. most of it being speculative paper based on the fact that people are encouraged and seeing buyouts coming. >> karen, do you think this is a good sign? >> this is something pete and i were talking about during the day. i'm not going to go chase these rumors of nuance or something like that. that's not at all what we do, but what is interesting is that the environment is such that now people believe this could actually happen. that in itself says a lot. and, you know, the m&a that we've seen, it does show you there's activity that's real. we've seen many cases of multiple buyers. it's hard sometimes to separate what's fact, what's fiction, but just the idea that people believe all of these things could be potential takeover targets. >> and bankers actually like it when there's deal chatter because it makes sometimes the buyers and the sellers actually more motivated. you might think that's a bit of a crazy thing, but that's what happens.
the bankers like the chatter because it gets people talking. and i really believe, this show, we made it a point to say that m&a is something that can move the market higher. we got it, people believe it now. and it's feeding on itself. deals create more deals. it's as simple as that. don't ask me why. deals create more deals. >> do you think that's one reason goldman sachs is breaking out? it's higher than more than 2%. over the past month it's really made a big move here. >> these guys are not going to be attacked the same way. people were very scared. i'm not saying they won't still get some shrapnel come their way from all the rhetoric, but goldman sachs is going to be as profitable as anybody, if not more so. they will find a way to make money. 1
16350 -- 163.50. it goes higher. >> you look at intuitive surgical. these are names that don't come right to the top of your frame, but if you look like somebody like intuitive, they were really hit by the economic uncertainty, as soon as we started to show some improvement, that's a stock -- they sell those pro-ro botic surgery devices. >> they're really expensive. >> $1.4 million. >> a lot of that has to do with people are starting to get n this case, you're talking about hospitals, a lot more confident that they are able to spend and they're doing that spending. and then with allergan, you're talking about spending on something like -- eyelashes being longer and all that. $74 price target. these are barometers of the public. >> if you're worried about your job you wouldn't spend money on your eyelashes? here's a guy who called it almost exactly a year ago.
>> i listened to bottom callers on this show for three years. i'm going to go on the record and tell you we will make a yearly low in the s&p within the next two or three days. >> a call from one doug cass of sea breeze. what's your next call at this point? >> buffet once said many years ago is price is what you pay and value is what you get. i'm not going to chase prices. i'm more in karen's camp. i'm reluctant to chase this. we're moving ever closer to the government due bills which are going to manifest in higher interest rates, higher tax rates and slower growth. but i think, you know, we're going to have a tug of war we're going to have a market that week to week, month to month has limited memory. >> hey, doug, it's gary. you put a piece, which i thought was an excellent piece about asset managers and the difficult head winds they're facing right now.
i do agree with you. i think there's potential for major market pressures as well as revenue short fall. is it possible that the markets could go up and asset managers could go down? >> growth prospects have diminished versus past performance and future consensus. here's an industry that's traditionally been a leveraged play on the stock market. stocks in general, managers rise quicker. i see a number of challenges that are going to threaten the industry's business model. most importantly is a demographic head wind. baby beerms are maturing. they're less likely to invest in stocks. and on the populism front, something we talked about here for several months, it's cleared that the administration spearheaded by shapiro is targeting the annual distribution and marketing fees that mutual fund investors reimburse to their fund management companies and by some
estimates, nearly $200 billion in these fees have been paid over the last 15 years. >> karen's got a question for you. >> doug, as the pressure on the fees, a lot of it is coming from etfs as an alternative. is there any way to play that. i know barclays, but you get a lot of other businesses in a noisy way. is there any pure way to play the etf explosion at the expense of these asset managers instead of being short the asset managers? >> i guess you could -- you could possibly invest or trade in the exchanges which hold, like the nyse, cme. but i don't know of any pure way other than that. but etfs are diluting the value-added component of the asset management companies considerably. >> all right, doug. franklin resources, t.rowe, we do want to bring in brian kelly
of conundrum capital. you're even more of a bear? >> yeah. i think we need to put things in perspective here. we've had a couple of good days. but look, we still lost jobs today. eight months into a recovery and lost jobs. we have two of the largest copper companies saying demand isn't very strong for copper. you have china shutting down refineries for the month of march. for me, i'm looking at this fundamental news out there and there's a huge disconnect between what's going on, what ceos are saying and what's going on with the market. >> i'm not hearing that. i'm listening to russia, their largest copper producerer saying they're starting to buy off the soviet stockpiles because they're running short on copper. i don't think the data -- i don't think the stockpiles are that much tighter. and we had the nucor ceo on the show and the bottom line is the economy stinks. >> nucor raised their prices.
>> but, you know, coal and steel are piling up on the docks in china. that worries me. chinese copper stocks are at all time highs. i guess what i'm saying is -- >> seven year highs, brian. >> this rally has not been a commodity rally. this rally is off the lows in february. the crb is flat. it's down 6% from where it was in the early part of january. i don't think commodities have been that frothy. this has been led by financials and the consumer. >> let's bring this back to the market. let's say that copper for whatever reason is moving because of concerns about what's in warehouses or moving because, whatever it is. the fact of the matter is it's not necessarily moving on fundamentals is your theory. so therefore, are we reading too much? what does this mean for the markets? >> i don't want to monday morning run into this market and buy, buy, buy. it's not that market. if i'm wrong, i have plenty of chances to buy. china has to buy a lot. we have to buy a lot.
we've got a big long up tick if i'm wrong. do i want to buy at the year highs? absolutely not. >> brian, let's take it back to the jobs for one second. it was job friday. i heard some of the chatter that it would have been something like a plus 50,000, if it wasn't the wet earather issues. if we had printed a plus 50,000 on the jobs today, would that make you think this was the beginning of that trend? >> perhaps, perhaps. except for the fact that all these other fundmentamental fac don't add up. one print isn't going to make a trend. i would say we grew 50,000 job, perhaps i would start to get a little more bullish, but again, i would still wait for a pullback in the market to get in. i'm not going to buy it in. >> technology is one sector leading us higher today. in particular apple, exploding for a 4% move today. nice move here. certainly a breakout. and of course, this is on the back of that announcement on the ip
ipad. it's actually coming out, there are no delays. >> right, and this is for the wifi. they're going to get this out of there. they're going to get some of the recurring revenue, not all of them. that's not going to be somebody like an at&t just yet. that will happen probably about a month from now. but an explosive move today. you look at the options, over 400,000 contracts trading, because lot of those were being sold. a lot of people that were able to get into this stock at right prices were selling. if you take a look at the volatility right now, it is absolutely just buried. 24% in the front month. and right now, the reason why i think the front month is getting hit as hard as it is, you're not going to start to see this. this release doesn't happen until april 3, then we're going to know a little bit more about am, but still, if you're looking for a derivative trade, it's akamai. 24,000 contracts traded in the options pit. it's made a new high ever single
day. they're the data delivery. they're doing data delivery for everything from iphones to everything else. >> aupt movie, you want it fast, you need akamai to make that process faster? apple hit an all-time high today intraday. if you're looking at the gains you may have had with apple, you want to lock in the gain, we have got a stock replacement strategy coming up on "options action." >> shameless. >> 5:30 is when that starts.
hotter right now. is this a sign of the bulls legs or a sign of the top? charles, good to see you. >> hi. >> you know, we talked about this before how the deal chatter is pervasive. you're looking at specific sectors, through. where do you think it's most? >> those with a lot of inventory to draw but not the capital to accelerate the net present value of what those reserves are worth. i think the public isn't going to be patient to wait. >> does m&a signal a top or a beginning of a new move up? because that's really been a question that hasn't been answered. what's your feel on that? you have a good visibility in terms of m&a. >> i think the m&a we see today is cash based. that's the difference.
m&a with paper, that would signal a top. as that capital gets deployed by companies, i think the market goes higher. and that doesn't even talk to the global pool of capital out there. >> why would you suppose with technology, with all the cash that they've got, we haven't seen more of an explosive ma m m&a in that category? >> i think you will. the m&a is going to be global. the example is where you know where we u.s. managers have built a great asset base, and all of a sudden you find a buyer that's not in that market. as that gets deployed, the most logical strategies where the cost sinncinergysinn synergies understand and you're maximizing your balance sheet in a way
that's shareholder friendly. >> charles, it's great to talk to you again. charles kantor of newberger berman. could the market reverse next week? get that? reverse next week pop it's like bull tango. >> is spain going to be the next one to take us down next week? tim, what's your feeling on this? >> things like telephonic, that's up 5%. greece was about 100 tighter this week. the eu has stepped in and told you they're all standing behind this and they're united whether or not greece who issued bonds today, much tighter than expected. it means in the short run, there's solidarity in the house of europe. stay out of the wof this trade n the short side. >> we want to talk about imax. felt like it was on pandora a
little bit earlier this year. but much like in the film, foreigners are starting to infiltrate their turf. can they fight them off? here to answer the navian charge, richard gelfon. >> the one word answer is absolutely. >> all right, then that is the first question i want to ask you. there's been a lot of concerns of late about amc coming out with its etx or enhanced theatre experience. ci cinemark is also coming out with its own format. they want to cut you out, they want to cut the middle guy out. how do you differentiate yourself, aside from saying you have a better experience in terms of cost. how are you different from these guys? >> you know, i really think that's a lot of noise. to give you an cinemark already had their xd theatres out. we were selling outs and the xd
theatres really weren't. the xd and the etx is really just a big screen with a project tor on projector on it, when you blow up an image and don't do it proprietary, it denigrates the system a little bit. we have superior sound, superior projection. we manipulate the image, we have a brand. it's not surprising when someone has done as well as we have done, people try to copy it. but the public is smarter than that. and "alice and wonderland" opened last night. we sold out in almost every single theater in the country. >> richard, the movie studios have been talking about making more films in 3d. it's obvious lis bely something had a lot of momentum. but how reliant are you for the studios to produce the content if they decide to slow it down, does that hurt you? >> well, the answer is -- we've been around for 45 years.
only 14 of our movies were in 3d. "the dark knight" was a 2d mu veer, "transformers 2" "star trek." so 2 d or 3d, you want the premium way to see a movie is imax. >> we know who you're pulling for in the oscars. >> absolutely. >> i kind of disagree in the sense that what drives the traffic there is the 3d. now, yes, people may like the experience, but at the end of the day, it's the 3d. the one thing about this company, if you go back and look at the last 15 years as the new imax entity, they are -- they don't control whether or not they get that 3d content. that's something you have to be concerned about. >> okay, "final trade" up next. [ ellen ] hey! [ receptionist ] hey!
i was just in town for a few days, and i was wondering if i could say hi to the doctor. is he in? he's in copenhagen. oh, well, that's nice. but you can still see him! you just said he was in... copenhagen. come on! that's pretty far. doc, look who's in town. ellen! copenhagen? cool, right? vacation. but still seeing patients. oh. [ whispering ] workaholic. i heard that. she said it. i... [ female announcer ] the new office. see it. live it. share it. on the human network. cisco.
>> petey? >> the coal trade is not over yet. >> all right, i'm melissa lee. that does it for us here on "fast." thanks for watching. "options actions" next. here's what we've got in store. monday on the anniversary of the bull run, "fast money" looks ahead. the pit boss is just getting started. how to protect your profits and help keep it coming. but we're an the showing-kids- new-worlds business. and the startup-capital- for-barbers business. and the this-won't- hurt-a-bit business. because we don't just work here. we live here. these are our families. and our neighbors. and by changing lives we're in more than the energy business we're in the human energy business. chevron.